When it comes to NFL gambling, Week 9 was a historic week. Multiple teams pulled huge upsets, most notably the Denver Broncos
and Jacksonville Jaguars
, who were both double-digit underdogs going into Sunday.
The Broncos and Jaguars were two of seven outright upsets with underdogs going 9-3 against the spread (ATS) overall.
Should the Chicago Bears cover tonight, it would be the first time we've seen 10 underdogs cover in consecutive weeks in the regular season since 2015.
Speaking of the Jaguars and Broncos, what do those two teams and the Tennessee Titans, Arizona Cardinals, and Atlanta Falcons all have in common? All five of them won outright despite each being at least 5-point 'dogs.
Per FOX research, that's the first time five underdogs of at least five points have won outright on the same day since Week 10 of the 2006 NFL season.
The biggest surprise on Sunday definitely came in Duval, where the Jaguars took down the Buffalo Bills, who entered the weekend as two-touchdown favorites. Buffalo also had the best odds to win the Super Bowl before Sunday's loss, so their loss was an eye-opener.
When it comes to the Jaguars, this is the biggest upset victory in the franchise's history. In the Super Bowl era, Jacksonville was 0-7 outright in regular-season games where they were an underdog of at least 14 points.
The Bills weren't the only double-digit favorite to lose outright this Sunday, as the Dallas Cowboys were looking to become just the second team in the last 20 years to improve to 8-0 ATS. Unfortunately for the 'Boys, the Broncos had other plans.
Denver was up 30-0 in the fourth quarter, making Dallas the first team to trail by 30 points in a game as a 10-point favorite since 2001.
Sportsbooks also came back with a vengeance thanks to the upsets after a three-week rough stretch in October. FOX Bet had one of their better weekends of the year, per Trading Operations Manager Ben Conroy.
"It was a great weekend for the book with nine of the 12 games on the day resulting in a positive result," Conroy stated. "The key favorites like the Cowboys, Bills, and Rams underperforming let down bettors on both the moneyline and spread, which also led to massive profits for us via parlays and teasers."
So what does this all mean when looking at the numbers from a wider lens? While we're only through the halfway point of the season, underdogs are covering the spread in 56% of games. When looking at 'dogs playing solely on the road, that number jumps even higher, to 60%.
Double-digit underdogs at home are also 3-0 ATS this season. From 1995 to 2017, underdogs of at least 14 points went 13-138 straight up. But when looking at the last four seasons, teams in those situations are 5-33 outright.
With offenses becoming more prolific, we'll likely continue to see an increase in the number of large spreads as time progresses. But, expect to see weekends like this more often, which means maybe taking a harder look at double-digit underdogs in 2021 and beyond.
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Source : https://www.foxsports.com/stories/nfl/nfl-week-9-betting-recap-the-dogs-are-barking735